Measurement, consolidation, and agentic AI: five trends set to shape the face of retail media in 2026

Buckle-up as we deliver some well-informed predictions about what we feel is going to come to the fore over the year ahead for retail media with Michael Schuh, Global Head of Media at dunnhumby.

Measurement will evolve, from “what’s possible” to “let’s make this repeatable”

Most retailers are no longer asking how best to measure retail media – proven methodologies exist, along with an increasingly shared acceptance of the "basics". What retailers want to know is how to drive trust and credibility with advertisers. The data is there, but organisational data silos, varied ad tech partners, and a lack of standardised operations make it too difficult to decipher.

In 2026, however, the industry could make real progress on this previously thorny subject. Measurement must become easier to deliver, easier to trust, and easier to compare. Why? Because, firstly, it has become too manual and heavy for retailers to deliver measurement under the constraints outlined above and, secondly, brands are losing patience when measurement can't meet basic needs or arrive in time to inform critical decisioning.

Elsewhere, the industry needs repeatability – moving us from single deep-dive studies that costs tens of thousands of dollars and towards trusted, reliable, and regular insight into performance. Expect more networks to move toward always-on or near-always-on measurement as a result, giving advertisers better and deeper insight into uplift and incremental return.

Consolidation is ramping up – and it will reshape the market

For several years, retail media grew through expansion - more entrants, more channels and more inventory. Every organisation, large or small, wanted a presence. Many built media operations quickly, to keep up with the market and lofty internal expectations, so often combining components from multiple technology partners. That phase created a busy marketplace, but it also created complexity for advertisers.

As we move deeper into 2026, I expect that consolidation will become more visible; brands are already simplifying their buying strategies by focusing on a smaller set of proven, trusted investment options. That introduces more scrutiny and caps growth prospects for mid-tier and smaller retailers who set ambitious goals to justify their investments into retail media.

In response, some retailers will explore alliances or shared platforms, while others will consider outsourcing their operations to partners who can deliver the scale and expertise required. Strong data, strong measurement, and strong merchandising relationships will matter more than ever. Those who have solid foundations will benefit. Those who lack them may ultimately find it difficult to compete.

Retail media will become a mainstream media option, not a niche

Throughout 2025, we saw leading retailers gain recognition far beyond the retail sector. Tesco’s success at the Media Week Awards is a good example. The UK’s largest retailer competed directly with major networks and platforms – and won. That change suggests that retail media is no longer seen as a specialist add-on. It is now seen as a serious, mainstream channel that combines reach, insight, and measurable impact – a point further strengthened through recent data which estimated that retail media will account for a quarter of all US ad spend by 2028.¹

As operational quality improves and the ability to demonstrate outcomes grows, more brand teams will consider retail media earlier in their planning cycles.

Understanding the holistic impact of investment

In retail today, brands invest across multiple areas of a retailer’s ecosystem. Some budget goes to price and promotions, some to shopper marketing, some to retail media, and more to “traditional” areas like trade funding.

At most retailers, at least some of these investments are isolated, a reality that makes it difficult to understand what delivers real value and what simply moves money from one bucket to another. Understandably, brands and retailers have started asking tougher questions about how all of these investments fit together. They want to know where spend is duplicated, where activation overlaps, and which buttons they can press to genuinely move the dial on sales.

Inevitably, that’s putting greater pressure on retailers to show the value of CPG investments – and those who can’t may find themselves frozen out of incremental investment. Brands will increasingly look for partners that can help them measure consistently and holistically across channels and maximise working dollars. Retailers who can support this joined-up view will win out here.

Agentic shopping enters the conversation

The concept of agentic shopping is gathering pace. The vision here is that AI agents will shop on behalf of customers, selecting products, comparing prices, and managing baskets without human involvement. Some commentators have suggested this could disrupt retail media entirely.

A more useful conversation for next year, perhaps, is how AI will begin to shape discovery and recommendation. Large language models are becoming leading search experiences where product choice is influenced. Several organisations are already working on ways to help brands improve how they appear in AI-driven product suggestions and explicit ad experiences are on the horizon.

Ultimately, this kind of “generative engine optimisation” (GEO) or AI optimisation (AIO) is likely to serve as an extension of retail media rather than a replacement. Retail media won’t vanish, but it will adapt to new touchpoints and new intermediaries.

Next up, we’ll be looking at some of the key AI and data science trends promising to shape the year ahead.

¹eMarketer